climate of prevention

Hello all,

 I just got back from the rainy Philippines and despite the looming
threats of a typhoon to the north of the main city and the emerging
activity of a volcano just to the south, I had a very productive trip!
My visit to Manila was jam packed with activity in which I aimed to
achieve three main goals: 1. Find out what type of climate information
is currently used by the Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC) and how,
2. Gain a better understanding of the current landslide response and
preparedness systems throughout the Philippines as well as how climate
information guides various institutions’ efforts, and 3. Investigate
the potential to integrate climate information for a landslide early
warning system, with consideration to meeting the needs of end-users,
such as the Red Cross.

 In order to reach these goals, I first met with PNRC to discuss their
Integrated Community Disaster Preparedness Planning (ICDPP) program, a
way in which hazard risk reduction is approached at the ground level.
This program builds the capacity of communities by forming a team of
volunteers at the local level and providing them with training in
disaster risk reduction and response. 44 community representatives,
such as youth, teachers, fisherman and woman’s group participants are
provided with the means to complete a vulnerability capacity
assessment (VCA) and hazard mapping; in collaboration with the Red
Cross, the community creates a topographic map, overlaying risks based
on past years’ experiences and highlighting community resources (both
man mad, such as markets and churches, and natural, such as lakes).
The VCA and hazard map aids in the development of a community disaster
plan, which is then integrated into the local government so that it
can be linked to existing institutions, making it more sustainable.

 I found this bottom-up approach truly impressive, and can see great
potential for collaboration in linking all these community based
hazard maps into a larger system, possibly complementing other
assessments done by various institutions. While it is very valuable to
base disaster planning on the experiences of the communities, I also
think that there is more room to integrate climate information into
the ICDPP program. This type of program could present a great
opportunity to integrate climate change information, allowing
communities to assess how climate change could enhance already
existing hazards, thus shifting the focus to longer-term mitigation.

 Next it was off to the Department of the Interior and Local Government
(DILG) offices to see how disaster management plans are prepared and
integrated at all levels of the government. It seemed that there was a
lot of confusion about this system, even within the government itself.
Part of this confusion results from the existence of disaster
management branches (such as the disaster management council) and
plans that primarily come into effect only after a disaster already
occurs. Up until now the government has taken a very reactionary
approach to disaster management, rather than a proactive approach. For
this reason it was very difficult for anyone in the department to
answer questions on proactive approaches to disaster management within
the local government units, especially when it came to the use if
climate information! However, it was encouraging to hear that this
method was slowly changing and that new approaches for developing
disaster management plans were being encouraged, such as the creation
of risk assessment and hazard maps. In addition, a recently formed
task force aims to tackle such issues as integrating climate change
mitigation into disaster management plans.

 Meetings with the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA) yielded some very interesting results
as well. Being the geek that I am, I was very excited visit PAGASA,
since we have heard so much about their work over the course of our
last semester in the Climate & Society Program! It was nice to be in
my own element, talking about the potential applications of forecasts.
I kept thinking about how to use this information to help preparedness
efforts at PNRC and about how the information could help compliment a
collaborative landslide early warning system. I believe tools such as
monthly provincial level precipitation forecasts (both probabilistic
and deterministic) as well as records of observed rainfall throughout
the country can help support both efforts. While PAGASA has a lot of
very useful forecasting information, I was surprised to see how little
direct contact they had with PNRC. In my remaining time, I hope to lay
the foundation for an improved line of communication between these
institutions.

 One of the main highlights of my trip was participating in PNRC’s 2009
World Disaster Report book launch, where I was asked to be a guest
speaker. I had the chance to talk about applying early warnings for
early action (the focus of the report), and the importance of
collaborative efforts between research institutions, such as IRI, and
humanitarian organizations, like the Red Cross. It was a really
wonderful way to cap off a great visit to the Philippines!

 Don’t forget to check out the pictures! (1. Me at the 24/7 operations
monitoring center of PNRC, 2. Gathering information at PAGASA, 3.
PNRC’s book launch of the 2009 World Disaster Report focusing on early
warning early action)

 ~Jessica Sharoff

     

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Typhoons_and_Volcanoes_Cant_Ho.zip (2630 KB)

Today I had the pleasure of attending the “Climate Change Adaptation” day at the Pacific Youth Festival in Suva.  In true Pacific fashion the festivities got off to a late start, but it was well worth the wait.  Some of you may have read about Tuvalu and Kiribati and how these islands are disappearing due to rising sea levels associated with climate change.  These islands are accessible potent symbols of the dramatic effects of climate change.  What is often forgotten, however, is that many people call these islands home. 

I spent today with 300 youths from these islands and listened as experts in the field presented grave scenarios for the future of the Pacific Islands and the livelihoods of those living on them.  I listened as members of the audience gasped when one speaker explained that the Pacific Islands are responsible for only 0.01% of greenhouse gas emissions, yet these islands are bearing the brunt of climate change.  I listened as Ben Namakin, a young charismatic I-Kiribati, tried to rally the youth to stand up and fight for the rights of the Pacific Island Nations.  I listened as a Fijian member of the audience offered the highlands of Fiji to those nations at risk of disappearing.  I listened as one speaker detailed the losses the natural system will suffer due climate change and asked the audience “what are we without our nature”?

Overall, though, there seemed to be little hope at the festival today.  Instead, there was a sense of frustration and resignation.  Frustration that the international community is turning a blind eye to Pacific Island Nations and resignation that many Pacific Islanders are going to be forced to relocate.  With virtually no voice in international negotiations Pacific islanders feel helpless to their own cause.

With small populations and few economical resources, developed countries have little interest in the Pacific region, a frustration felt by aid organizations in the Pacific.  Climate change, however, brings with it a relatively new problem to the Pacific, the issue of human rights.  Are developed countries developing at the expense of these Pacific populations?  Is there not a moral responsibility for developed nations to aid Pacific Islanders in adaptation or relocation efforts?  Is relocation even a feasible option?  Can we stand by and watch cultures and traditions disappear?  Although these questions seem to be debatable in the rest of the world, for Pacific Islanders the answers are obvious. 

Cynthia

Hi everyone!

After having been immersed in the arid heat of Niger, where the rains were being obstinate, it was a bit of a shock to arrive in Togo amidst some serious downpours. Lomé, with it's industrial grit and picturesque proximity to the ocean, is known for the prevalent use of motorbikes for transportation. Along busy streets, they travel like revving, roving herds. It didn't take me long to see why a motorbike was distinctly preferable to a car!

The city of Lomé, and many other parts of Togo, are exposed to frequent, severe flooding. This, combined with poor infrastructure, makes travel distinctly difficult during the rainy season (as was evinced when our 4-wheel drive vehicle required some creativity and muscle power to ooomph it from some mud). Some of the villages we were intending to visit were cut off completely. Needless to say, motorbikes reign supreme in this realm.

The purpose of my mission to Togo was to see if there is a good opportunity to integrate hydrological models, which are forced with climate and meteorological forecasts, within a community based flood Early Warning System along the Mono River. The system, which is in a pilot project phase, consists of installing simple, yet strategically placed, river level gauges. (See the multicolored post in the picture above? That's it!)

In conjunction with community-wide training, this system allows Red Cross volunteers to systematically monitor the level of the river. Each level of alert corresponds to distinct preparation and response activities. This helps communities to prioritize their resources and to make timely decisions in advance of flooding events. The Togo Red Cross supplements this system, by providing climate information to focal point volunteers in each village, to let the community know that extra vigilance is necessary.

Yet, the system may not be well-suited to provide early warning for all events. When speaking with community members about 60 km (but 3-4 hours of driving) outside of Lomé, they told me that the river can rise in a matter of days - or a matter of minutes! Such a monitoring system may not be sufficient when the river is rising, and rising fast.

With the integration of climate info-forced hydrological models, which are scaled locally, these communities would be likely to have up to a week's notice that a threat was coming. Not only that, but the extent of the flood risk would be a predictable piece of information. This advanced warning could be highly beneficial, especially for evacuating the most vulnerable populations, given that the nearest evacuation site for these communities is over 15 km away and is covered by foot.

While this type of system would need some significant technical development, as well as thought about effective communication mechanisms, I believe that it would provide an added value to the community based component of flood EWS in Togo. In communities where the river is a source of life, but also a harbinger of destruction, learning to manage flood risk is essential. I think that systems like this have the potential to help!

Til next time,

Meaghan

The rainy season makes foot travel throughout the city dubious as afternoon downpours can soak through a t-shirt in a matter of seconds.  Even if you have an umbrella, you're guaranteed to get home with soggy shoes. However, today the sun was out, and the city was alive with people on every corner, street, and park.  So I took the opportunity myself to head out without an umbrella, grab a couple churros and hang out.  As I watched kids chasing pigeons outside the Teatro Nacional, it was almost like being back in New York (although I hear it’s actually been quite rainy there this summer)! 

In guidebooks, San Jose is usually presented as the place you fly into, maybe spend a day looking for a chorreador (the local coffee brewing apparatus consisting of a cloth filter and stand) and some postcards.  Then it’s onto the “real” Costa Rica, a country that covers just 0.03% of the Earth’s surface but contains 4% of the world’s biodiversity.  This is quite an amazing fact when you think about it: in a country the size of West Virginia, there are over 500,000 species of plants, animals, and insects!  It is in large part what drives the ecotourism industry here.  It is also an important point in the conservation movement as an argument against tropical deforestation and a warning of what might be lost due to a changing climate.

However, there’s another fact that doesn’t show up in guidebooks that also important for the country in the context of climate change.  In Costa Rica, 63% of the population lives in urban areas.  In fact, 50% of the total population resides in the Central Valley in the San Jose Metropolitan Area, in a space which covers just 10% of the country.

Latin America in general is highly urbanized or moving towards it very quickly.  All countries in the zone, except for Belize, will be at least 50% urbanized between 2010 and 2015.  According to the Americas Zonal Plan for 2009-2010, approximately 84% of Latin America and Caribbean populations will be living in urban areas by 2030.

However, little of the communications materials the Red Cross National Societies have created address the specific risks climate change poses to urban populations. In contrast, there are a number of materials geared towards rural livelihoods and climate change.  This is not to say that rural livelihoods are not important to address, for they clearly are.  It is just as important to address cities, especially since the majority of the population in the region resides, or soon will, in urban areas.

While every urban area faces unique challenges from climate variability, there are still some common issues that can be addressed.  Some of these include water resources, food security, an enhanced heat island effect, and stronger zoning codes for infrastructure and informal settlements.  Also, the effects urban areas have on regional climate such as decreased rainfall downwind are important to address as well.

While some of the themes mentioned above have been addressed tangentially in communications material, I think it would be really powerful for the Red Cross to develop some urban-specific climate change messages.  Then again, some of these can be very complex issues, which may not be initially as important to communicate to people as the basics of climate change.  Though my draft report is in, I believe it is important to re-examine the material I’ve looked at with an urban perspective in mind.  If any of you have dealt with urbanization and climate change in your work with the Red Cross, I’d love to hear about it as well as any input in general.

Hope all is well!

Chao,

Brian

PS: I cheated and added a couple pictures of Panama City rather than San Jose, because it's another example of intense urbanization. Twenty-five percent of Panama's population actually reside in less than 1% of the country's area!  And there are 110 new high rise projects being built or planned in the city, further building the area up.

   

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Churros_on_a_Sunday.zip (6220 KB)

Hi everyone,

So, for those of us who heard a lot about convection during the past year, I included the picture above, which I took during my (rather bumpy) flight from Niamey to Ouagadougou. (I am such a geek!) Upon landing in Ouaga, clouds like these produced some pretty serious thunderstorms!

While my time in Niamey seemed too short, it was a very productive trip! In addition to meeting with AGRHYMET, the other half of my mission was to meet with ACMAD (African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development) to strengthen the collaboration with the IFRC. In particular, it was my job to discuss how to better communicate and format climate risk alerts being provided through a pilot project to establish an IFRC Desk at the center.

This pilot project was initiated as a result of the work done by Arame Tall (Climate and Society M.A. 2008) over the past year, which highlighted the fact that there was an abundance of climate information being generated for West Africa that was not being utilized to the full extent by the IFRC WCAZ. The idea behind the establishment of the desk is that by creating a direct line of communication to deliver this information as soon as a threat is detected, earlier and more effective actions can be taken when disasters are imminent.

But, the establishment of a direct line of communication is only the first step. It is also necessary to consider how to put the information being delivered into context useful for disaster response. For example, we may know that 300 mm of rain fell in Conakry during the past 2 days, but without knowing how this relates to the climatology of the local area, it doesn't aid in decision making. Additionally, it is essential to think about how to present this information so that the temporal and spatial characteristics of the risk are accurately conveyed.

While challenging, my meeting with ACMAD was highly beneficial. We were able to collaborate to design specific maps that will (hopefully!) provide more useful information to the Disaster Management team in Dakar. Additionally, we discussed the potential of developing a Context Based Climate Risk Alert Matrix, because there is also the challenge of helping ACMAD to determine when and how to issue alerts. The key to success for such a tool will be determining which factors are most important to determining the likelihood of disaster event and what the thresholds should be for issuing an alert.

This is likely to be an long-term process, as it will require developing relationships with National Meteorological services and analyzing the necessary data, but it is a start. For now, we will focus on developing a road map to identify concrete actions that will need to be taken. Moreover, it will be up to the IFRC WCAZ to provide relevant and timely feedback to ACMAD. I am working to try to systematize the provision of feedback and to evaluate if the alerts are effectively detecting disaster events.

Hopefully, this will all contribute to forward progress for EWEA for the IFRC!

Til next time,

Meaghan

Hi everyone!

I arrived safely here in Niger, after a quick overnight stop over in Burkina Faso. Despite the heat (110 degrees farenheit today!) I have found Niamey to be a respite compared to the hustle and bustle of Dakar. Drinking 'cafe touba' (a tasty, spicy version of coffee) with people at a nearby stand and trying to master how to say hello in Zarma and Hausa, I was able to enjoy the quiet, tree lined streets of the city as the sun set.

I am staying not too far from the banks of the Niger River - a fitting location, given that part of my mission here is to explore the potential use of hydrological forecasts of river discharge to improve flood risk management here in West Africa. It was just last year that the Niger River over-ran it's banks and displaced over 50,000 people, damaged homes irreparably, and washed away crops and livestock.

I met with an expert hydrologist from AGRHYMET (the regional West African center for agriculture, hydrology, and meteorology) yesterday to discuss the development of such river discharge forecasts for the Mono River and to learn how climate information could be integrated within these forecast models.

The Mono River subjects the countries of Togo and Benin to flood risk on a regular basis and the IFRC is supporting proactive efforts to better manage these disasters. While the IFRC has initiated the development of a community based river monitoring program, to enhance flood preparation and response, such efforts alone may not be sufficient to ensure the safety of vulnerable communities. During my meeting with Mr. Abdou Ali at AGRHYMET, I learned why this may become increasingly true.

As many of you may (or may not) know, the Sahelian region of West Africa experienced what is frequently considered the largest and most persistent drought, worldwide, during the 20th century. Beginning in the late 1960's, below average rainfall in the region continued for almost 20 years. Since 1998, a modest abatement of the drought has been observed, but has been accompanied by a high level of inter-annual variability - meaning that on a year to year basis, there can be large swings between very wet and very dry conditions. (For some good, but technical, information on this, see "The Sahelian Standardized Rainfall Index Revisited" Ali and Lebel, Int. J. Climatol. 2008)

In Niger, there has also been a shift towards an earlier, yet more intense onset of rain and river discharge since the end of the drought. Yet, the total volume of water flow observed for the years 1990 - 2007 has, on average, been less than in previous decades. What this often means in Niger is that the rainy season is marked by flood early on, but ends in drought. A dangerous combination indeed, and one that may make monitoring alone a less effective strategy in the future.

Climate change, natural climate variability, and shifts in land use, may all be part of the explanation for this phenomenon. But whatever the cause, variability of this kind illustrates that, more than ever, we need to be creative in our efforts to link climate prediction and climate information with disaster response strategies.

Til next time,

Meaghan

       

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News_from_Niamey.zip (7312 KB)